Scientists brace for Trump’s second act
Will his bark be worse than his bite? President-elect Donald Trump doesn’t take office until 20 January, but his repeated promises to shrink the government and slash spending have already put the U.S. research community on edge. And several of his nominees have pledged to shake up the science agencies they are expected to oversee, including the National Institutes of Health, the biomedical colossus under fire for its role in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. There’s also angst about possible political interference in grantmaking and erosion of scientific integrity policies across government. Research on climate change, conservation, and renewable energy sources, which fell out of favor in Trump’s first administration, is again likely to be squeezed, along with new targets such as programs aimed at creating a more inclusive scientific workforce. Republican members of Congress, who will control both of its chambers, are expected to continue a wide-ranging investigation of U.S. higher education. But House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson (R–LA) could have difficulty managing his party’s razor-thin majority. Legislators are also protective of their constitutional authority over federal spending, and many programs that Trump has criticized enjoy bipartisan support. In the rest of this section, Science’s News staff previews other research and policy areas likely to make headlines this year.
H5N1 influenza’s evolving threat
Two major questions loom for the influenza field this year. One is whether the United States can get rid of the now-massive outbreak in dairy cattle of an H5N1 avian flu strain that likely started in late 2023. This year, bulk milk testing, mandated under a federal order last month, may help identify infected herds earlier and curb the spread of the virus. Results from vaccine trials in cows are also expected, and scientists hope to better understand why most people sickened by the H5N1 variant affecting cattle suffered only a mild eye infection, whereas those infected after contact with birds typically have more serious disease. The other big question: Will its spread in mammals—and frequent infections in humans from both birds and cows—give H5N1 more avenues to evolve, eventually sparking a pandemic? Scientists are on the alert for signs that the virus is adapting to humans and becoming transmissible between people.
Peak emissions at last?
Scientists are hopeful this year could mark a critical turning point in the fight against climate change: the year when global greenhouse gas emissions peak. Annual emissions, driven mostly by the combustion of fossil fuels, seem to have nearly plateaued, increasing by about 1 percentage point each year for the past 2 years and totaling 41.6 billion tons in 2024. The rapid rise of electric vehicles, renewable energy, and reforestation has jostled with the countervailing forces of the energy-gobbling data centers powering artificial intelligence and rebounding fuel demand after a pandemic lull. As the world’s largest emitter, China, continues its aggressive push into renewables, many researchers suspect this year could finally see a long-awaited drop. But even if the world reaches that milestone, it could take several decades before the world reaches “net zero” and emissions return to preindustrial levels. And even then, the warmth from existing carbon dioxide will linger for centuries.
Lifestyle clues in ancient bones
In the coming year, scientists expect to make leaps in identifying chemical signatures in bones of long-dead people, offering new kinds of clues to their behavior. Physicians, forensic specialists, and biomedical researchers have long traced metabolites from the foods, beverages, and medicines people consume in samples of their hair, blood, urine, and saliva. Now, researchers are examining such metabolomic changes in well-preserved tissue such as bone. In 2024, archaeologists identified the chemical signatures left by tobacco smoking in the bones of hundreds of English people who lived between 1700 and 1855, offering a window into their health and social customs. Scientists hope to find more chemical hallmarks in other ancient bone samples, including those of our hominin ancestors. One study now underway is looking at metabolites in Egyptian mummies to better understand how diseases such as tuberculosis and plague impacted various levels of society. Other research aims to dig deeper into how ancient people made themselves merry, tracing metabolites of mood-altering substances such as alcohol, tobacco, and coca.
Shots may drive down malaria
Public health experts and policymakers hope to see a noticeable dent this year in malaria cases and deaths among children in the 17 countries where two malaria vaccines have been rolled out on a large scale. More than a dozen countries in sub-Saharan Africa added the shots to their routine childhood vaccination schedules this year; GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance estimates that in 2024 about 5 million children received at least one of the recommended four doses, given over 12 months. This year, GAVI aims to reach 14 million children in 25 countries. Although comprehensive data on malaria cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are notoriously tricky to collect, researchers say it should be possible to see disease rates go down in regions where children have been vaccinated. Pilot programs in Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi that reached more than 2 million children between 2019 and 2023 found that vaccination reduced the number of children admitted to hospitals with severe malaria by nearly one-third and reduced overall mortality by 13%.
More: https://www.science.org/content/article/science-stories-likely-make-biggest-headlines-2025
