A recent analysis of 131 school shootings between 2000 and 2022 reveals a disturbing trend: the National Rifle Association (NRA) experiences a significant increase in donations and new donors in the counties where these shootings occur. Published in Science Advances, the study sheds light on a hyperlocal effect that lasts for several years after a school shooting, indicating heightened fears and responses within affected communities.
Tobias Roemer, a Ph.D. student at the University of Oxford, utilized the U.S. Federal Election Commission database to track donations in 131 counties with school shootings and 2758 unaffected counties. In the four years following a shooting, donations to the NRA's political action committee increased by an average of $970 per year in affected counties. The number of individual donors in these counties grew by up to 40%, peaking at 5 new donors per county. In contrast, unaffected counties showed no parallel surges in NRA donations or donors.
The study also ruled out other causes for increased giving, such as tax deadlines, by examining donations to unrelated organizations. Donations to Giffords, a group advocating for gun control and research, did not increase in affected counties. Roemer's analysis focused on tangible variables, emphasizing the real impact of money in understanding these trends.
Despite ongoing challenges, including a fraud lawsuit and declining political donations and membership numbers, the NRA continues to exert influence, especially among highly motivated supporters. The study highlights the complex dynamics surrounding gun rights and control in the aftermath of tragic events like school shootings, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of public responses.
Critics argue that the absence of a surge in donations to Giffords may not fully represent the impact on support for gun safety, considering the organization's relatively recent establishment and narrower scope compared to the longstanding NRA. The study's findings contribute to the ongoing debate about the role of advocacy groups in shaping public opinion and policy in the aftermath of highly emotional events.
